We introduce a novel rough Bergomi (rBergomi) model featuring a variance-driven exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) time-dependent Hurst parameter $H_t$, fundamentally distinct from recent machine learning and wavelet-based approaches in the literature. Our framework pioneers a unified rough differential equation (RDE) formulation grounded in rough path theory, where the Hurst parameter dynamically adapts to evolving volatility regimes through a continuous EWMA mechanism tied to instantaneous variance. Unlike discrete model-switching or computationally intensive forecasting methods, our approach provides mathematical tractability while capturing volatility clustering and roughness bursts. We rigorously establish existence and uniqueness of solutions via rough path theory and derive martingale properties. Empirical validation on diverse asset classes including equities, cryptocurrencies, and commodities demonstrates superior performance in capturing dynamics and out-of-sample pricing accuracy. Our results show significant improvements over traditional constant-Hurst models.

Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) have experienced rapid development in recent years. However, in the financial domain, there is a notable lack of effective and specialized multimodal evaluation datasets. To advance the development of MLLMs in the finance domain, we introduce FinMME, encompassing more than 11,000 high-quality financial research samples across 18 financial domains and 6 asset classes, featuring 10 major chart types and 21 subtypes. We ensure data quality through 20 annotators and carefully designed validation mechanisms. Additionally, we develop FinScore, an evaluation system incorporating hallucination penalties and multi-dimensional capability assessment to provide an unbiased evaluation. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that even state-of-the-art models like GPT-4o exhibit unsatisfactory performance on FinMME, highlighting its challenging nature. The benchmark exhibits high robustness with prediction variations under different prompts remaining below 1%, demonstrating superior reliability compared to existing datasets. Our dataset and evaluation protocol are available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/luojunyu/FinMME and https://github.com/luo-junyu/FinMME.

Large language models (LLMs), as a new generation of recommendation engines, possess powerful summarization and data analysis capabilities, surpassing traditional recommendation systems in both scope and performance. One promising application is investment recommendation. In this paper, we reveal a novel product bias in LLM investment recommendation, where LLMs exhibit systematic preferences for specific products. Such preferences can subtly influence user investment decisions, potentially leading to inflated valuations of products and financial bubbles, posing risks to both individual investors and market stability. To comprehensively study the product bias, we develop an automated pipeline to create a dataset of 567,000 samples across five asset classes (stocks, mutual funds, cryptocurrencies, savings, and portfolios). With this dataset, we present the bf first study on product bias in LLM investment recommendations. Our findings reveal that LLMs exhibit clear product preferences, such as certain stocks (e.g., `AAPL' from Apple and `MSFT' from Microsoft). Notably, this bias persists even after applying debiasing techniques. We urge AI researchers to take heed of the product bias in LLM investment recommendations and its implications, ensuring fairness and security in the digital space and market.

We present a novel approach for predicting the distribution of asset returns using a quantile-based method with Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks. Our model is designed in two stages: the first focuses on predicting the quantiles of normalized asset returns using asset-specific features, while the second stage incorporates market data to adjust these predictions for broader economic conditions. This results in a generalized model that can be applied across various asset classes, including commodities, cryptocurrencies, as well as synthetic datasets. The predicted quantiles are then converted into full probability distributions through kernel density estimation, allowing for more precise return distribution predictions and inferencing. The LSTM model significantly outperforms a linear quantile regression baseline by 98% and a dense neural network model by over 50%, showcasing its ability to capture complex patterns in financial return distributions across both synthetic and real-world data. By using exclusively asset-class-neutral features, our model achieves robust, generalizable results.

This study introduces a novel approach to Industrial Asset Management (IAM) by incorporating Conditional-Based Management (CBM) principles with the latest advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs). Our research introduces an automated model-building process, traditionally reliant on intensive collaboration between data scientists and domain experts. We present two primary innovations: a taxonomy-guided prompting generation that facilitates the automatic creation of AI solution recipes and a set of LLM pipelines designed to produce a solution recipe containing a set of artifacts composed of documents, sample data, and models for IAM. These pipelines, guided by standardized principles, enable the generation of initial solution templates for heterogeneous asset classes without direct human input, reducing reliance on extensive domain knowledge and enhancing automation. We evaluate our methodology by assessing asset health and sustainability across a spectrum of ten asset classes. Our findings illustrate the potential of LLMs and taxonomy-based LLM prompting pipelines in transforming asset management, offering a blueprint for subsequent research and development initiatives to be integrated into a rapid client solution.

We investigate the concept of network momentum, a novel trading signal derived from momentum spillover across assets. Initially observed within the confines of pairwise economic and fundamental ties, such as the stock-bond connection of the same company and stocks linked through supply-demand chains, momentum spillover implies a propagation of momentum risk premium from one asset to another. The similarity of momentum risk premium, exemplified by co-movement patterns, has been spotted across multiple asset classes including commodities, equities, bonds and currencies. However, studying the network effect of momentum spillover across these classes has been challenging due to a lack of readily available common characteristics or economic ties beyond the company level. In this paper, we explore the interconnections of momentum features across a diverse range of 64 continuous future contracts spanning these four classes. We utilise a linear and interpretable graph learning model with minimal assumptions to reveal the intricacies of the momentum spillover network. By leveraging the learned networks, we construct a network momentum strategy that exhibits a Sharpe ratio of 1.5 and an annual return of 22%, after volatility scaling, from 2000 to 2022. This paper pioneers the examination of momentum spillover across multiple asset classes using only pricing data, presents a multi-asset investment strategy based on network momentum, and underscores the effectiveness of this strategy through robust empirical analysis.

We propose a portfolio allocation method based on risk factor budgeting using convex Nonnegative Matrix Factorization (NMF). Unlike classical factor analysis, PCA, or ICA, NMF ensures positive factor loadings to obtain interpretable long-only portfolios. As the NMF factors represent separate sources of risk, they have a quasi-diagonal correlation matrix, promoting diversified portfolio allocations. We evaluate our method in the context of volatility targeting on two long-only global portfolios of cryptocurrencies and traditional assets. Our method outperforms classical portfolio allocations regarding diversification and presents a better risk profile than hierarchical risk parity (HRP). We assess the robustness of our findings using Monte Carlo simulation.

It has been known to create paintings, write poems and even learn languages on its own. But could Artificial Intelligence also make you richer? Last week, it emerged JPMorgan Chase is developing a service similar to the AI-powered ChatGPT which would help customers select investments and give financial advice. Separately banks Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have started testing the tech internally as businesses speed up their apparent AI arms race. It begs the question whether financial advisors will be needed at all in a few years as computers offer a quicker (and cheaper) alternative.

When covering investment and personal finance stories, we aim to inform our readers rather than recommend specific financial product or asset classes. While we may highlight certain positives of a financial product or asset class, there is no guarantee that readers will benefit from the product or investment approach and may, in fact, make a loss if they acquire the product or adopt the approach. To the extent any recommendations or statements of opinion or fact made in a story may constitute financial advice, they constitute general information and not personal financial advice in any form. As such, any recommendations or statements do not take into account the financial circumstances, investment objectives, tax implications, or any specific requirements of readers. Readers of our stories should not act on any recommendation without first taking appropriate steps to verify the information in the stories consulting their independent financial adviser in order to ascertain whether the recommendation (if any) is appropriate, having regard to their investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs.

Recently, there are many trials to apply reinforcement learning in asset allocation for earning more stable profits. In this paper, we compare performance between several reinforcement learning algorithms - actor-only, actor-critic and PPO models. Furthermore, we analyze each models' character and then introduce the advanced algorithm, so called Reward clipping model. It seems that the Reward Clipping model is better than other existing models in finance domain, especially portfolio optimization - it has strength both in bull and bear markets. Finally, we compare the performance for these models with traditional investment strategies during decreasing and increasing markets.